Does AI need an antitrust exemption so it doesn’t kill everyone????
The IPO Panic
The most cynical but likely driver here is the burn rate. These labs are hemorrhaging cash and need to stabilize their unit economics before hitting the public markets. Slowing the frontier buys them the breathing room they need to fix their business models without being disrupted by faster, cheaper competitors.
Safety or Stalling?
Kanter argues that companies like Boeing and Airbus do not need to form a cartel to ensure planes don't fall apart. They just need to build better products. Using safety as a reason to coordinate and limit competition is a classic move to avoid the pressure of actual engineering excellence.
The China Tension
Regulators are stuck in a massive contradiction. They want to curb the risks of AI, but they also want to win the tech race against China. This tension will decide if we get rules that protect the public or rules that just protect the existing winners.
What to Watch
Watch for any lobbying that specifically targets compute thresholds or training requirements. If the proposed safety rules focus on the amount of hardware used, the cartel is officially forming to lock out smaller players.
Key Details
- Regulatory capture is becoming a core strategy to gatekeep the industry and keep out open-source competition.
- The push for regulation is a massive signal that current AI economics are unsustainable for many frontier labs.
- As liability for AI agents increases, the winners will be those who prioritize verifiable, predictable safety over raw power.